Tanaina, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

496
FXAK68 PAFC 250129
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
529 PM AKDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

Unsettled weather continues. Isolated to scattered showers with
breaks of sun today will transition into drearier conditions by
Friday afternoon as two fronts move in for the weekend. Most of
the precipitation will be focused along the coast: Kodiak Island,
Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound. No weather
hazards are currently being monitored.

Diving into the details... a low currently in the northeast Gulf
continues to weaken, with precipitation becoming a lot more
showery. A robust upper level shortwave emanating from the low
will bring showers across the region this afternoon and evening.
Overall precipitation amounts will be rather low, but there could
be localized heavier showers. No lightning is expected.

Although the mid/upper-level low lifts into Yukon Friday,
unsettled weather will persist as the Aleutian Low broadens and
anchors cyclonic flow across the North Pacific, steering embedded
shortwave troughs towards the Gulf of Alaska. One such wave and
associated frontal boundary will push into the Gulf Thursday
night, bringing rain and breezy conditions to Kodiak Island before
reaching the southern Kenai later on Friday. A more robust trough
will rotate into these regions on Saturday, bringing heavier
precipitation to Kodiak and then the Kenai Peninsula and
eventually Prince William Sound by early Sunday morning. At this
time, it appears much of the area lee of the mountains will remain
downsloped and dry through the weekend.

-Brown/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...


The front of a Bering Sea system in the Eastern Bering moves over
the southwest mainland this evening, bringing mainly rain to the
region. Colder air wrapping in behind the low will sweep light
snow across the western Aleutians, however, in the eastern
Aleutians, temperatures will likely remain high enough to support
rain. Light amounts are expected for the Kuskokwim Delta and
Valley, with little to no snow accumulation. After the front
passes tonight, much of the area will remain in a cloudy, showery
regime of mostly rain through the weekend. The responsible low
pressure system will approach the western mainland and stall
between the Pribilof Islands and Bristol Bay by Saturday morning.
Widespread gales over water are expected to weaken as the front
reaches the mainland. Gap winds won`t be very strong across the
Alaska Peninsula, though there may be some enhancement through
channeled terrain.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

An actively flexing upper level low spreads across the region
from the Russian Far East to Canada through the period. Most of
the low remains over the Bering Sea with several shortwaves
rotating through the flow. The active storm track is pushed into
the North Pacific, but contributes to systems working across the
Southern portions of the state. A weak upper ridge extending from
Southeast Alaska and Western Canada into the Eastern Interior
helps deflect the energy Northward. Model confidence is led by the
ECMWF, with other models supporting the large scale features.

A decaying surface low and front over the Southeastern Gulf
steers locally moderate rain along the coast from Prince William
Sound to the Canadian border on Tuesday. A developing North
Pacific low and front approaching the Western and Central
Aleutians Monday proceeds with areas of snow or rain and snow and
gusty winds over the Central Aleutians, changing to another round
of rain or rain and snow mixed spreading over the Alaska Peninsula
and Kodiak Island late Tuesday and Wednesday, and continuing
across Southcentral coasts through Thursday. Areas of snow are
expected over higher terrain across Southwest and Southcentral
inland locations. A new North Pacific low and front moves into the
Western Aleutians with locally moderate rain and gusty winds on
Thursday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. A weak Turnagain Arm wind is
expected to develop late this afternoon and continue through the
late evening hours. Expect generally southeast winds of varying
strength for the next few days.

&&


$$